Report—POPULATION GROWTH AND ELECTRICITY ACCESS: CHALLENGES, INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS, AND OUTLOOK

Check our latest report from the project Access to Electricity in Urban and Peri-Urban Areas in Sub-Saharan Africa

This project was financed by RES4Africa Foundation in knowledge partnership with Enel Foundation with the participation of our consultants Bertrand Nkongdem, Shadrack Omwenga, Rakshitha Gowdagere Boregowda and Abdelkader SALLEMINE.

The study results showed rapid urban growth in Sub-Saharan African cities like Lagos, Nairobi, and Johannesburg is outpacing energy infrastructure, leaving informal settlements with high population density largely without electricity access.

Key Findings
Urbanization and Population Growth

• SSA’s urban population is projected to be more than double by 2050, with megacities cities
  like Kinshasa (DRC) and Lagos (Nigeria) leading growth
  o Lagos: Expected to grow from 16.5 million (2024) to 38 million by 2050 (Baseline
  Constant Scenario)
  o Kinshasa: From 17 million (2024) to 48 million by 2050(Baseline Constant Scenario),
  potentially the largest city in Africa by 2050
• Secondary cities (Dar es Salaam, Lusaka, Nairobi) are among the fastest growing cities,
  driven by rural-urban migration and economic opportunities
  Electricity Access Gaps
• While Urban electrification averages 78%, but 110 million urban dwellers remain
  unconnected, often living “under the grid” due to:
  o High connection costs (e.g., $240 to $400 in Lusaka)
  o Unreliable supply (frequent blackouts in Nigeria, DRC)
• Under current growth trends, only 4 of 10 selected cities (Lagos, Kigali, Dar es Salaam,
  Lusaka) can achieve a theoretical 100% electrification by 2030–2050
• Accelerated investment could bridge these gaps but requires $28 billion/year until 2030
  
  Critical Challenges
• Supply-side barriers: Aging infrastructure, funding gaps ($28 billion/year needed), and power
  theft and high losses (e.g., Nigeria’s 14% theft rate)
• Demand-side barriers: High connection costs, low willingness-to-pay, informal settlement
  (complicated grid expansion) and unreliable supply
• Policy and regulatory barriers: Weak regulatory frameworks and bureaucratic inefficiencies
  hinder private investment
  
  Proposed Solutions
• Grid Modernization and expansion of decentralized energy
  o Smart grids and advanced metering (AMI) to reduce losses and theft, improve billing
  accuracy (e.g., Lagos, Johannesburg)
  o Decentralized models: Solar hybrids mini/micro-grids for informal settlements (e.g.,
  Nairobi’s slums)
• Innovative Financing
  o Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) (e.g., ENGIE Energy Access in Nairobi and ZOLA Electric in
  Dar es Salaam)
  o Community solar programs to improve affordability.
  o Public-private partnerships (PPPs) for infrastructure upgrades (e.g., Zambia’s REA
  incentives)
• Policy Reforms
  o Streamlined regulations to attract private capital (e.g., Nigeria’s 2023 Electricity Act)
  o Integrated urban-energy planning (e.g., Kigali’s Master Plan 2050)